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Correlation & Causality

This is slightly rewritten from a Twitter post, to archive it here.

Something SEOs never will get right, even if they think they are ‘scientists’ when reversing the Google algorithm. πŸ‘¨β€πŸ”¬

I don’t feel like putting in the original Tweet here, because I don’t want to promote that crap. It’s enough that it was linked in my Tweet. To sum it up, there was a video where it was said that most of the sites in Googles Top 10 are 3y+ old. So you ‘just’ need to outlast your competitors.

That’s good old correlation and causality gone wrong again.

Lets bring a little bit light into this:

Lets say you are out for a walk. There’s a dog coming your way with a stick. Totally wet. Then another dog, and another. Both wet too and with a stick in their mouth. And then two more dogs, also wet and with a stick. Does that mean all dogs need to be wet to get a stick? Of course not. It just means some dogs had a bath πŸ˜‚.

Sorry, can’t come up with a less stupid example. On my third coffee only. πŸ₯±

It’s the same with the SERPs. One observation MIGHT have a correlation but it’s not necessarily a causality.

Most things in the SERPs are also even nothing more than just an observation.

When you want to make something a causality, you have to run (split)tests. A lot of them. That’s a scientific approach.

But talking and making videos is easier of course (If you think I meant you, read the very last sentence of this post).

Since we cleared this out, lets move on…

As it was already described in the comments to the original post, ‘it depends’ on how long it takes to actually rank a website. It depends on the amount of trust and authority you built. When you take a step back and look at the bigger picture it makes sense.

Think for example of some well established niche, nothing groundbreaking happened there for years. But then a new player comes in the market with a product much improved and so much better than the products of the competition (can’t think of an example right now, sorry).

Do you think that new player would have to wait for 3 years with his new domain? Of course after leaving the sandbox, right? πŸ˜‚

Now you say, but Ralf, that’s something else, they have lots of proof from social media, and many links, and…

There you have it. Just because you can’t do it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

And we are back where all your problems start: You πŸ˜‚

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